Analysts at Nomura suggested that the weather is likely to temporarily depress payroll growth.
Key Quotes:
“We forecast a somewhat soft 140k increase in nonfarm payroll employment for March, largely due to payback after warm weather pushed up February’s employment growth.
Despite this temporary weakness, monthly nonfarm payroll growth is likely to still average close to +230k for Q1 2018, indicating strong labor demand.
With no calendar effect this month, we expect a steady 0.2% m-o-m increase in average hourly earnings (AHE), bringing the y-o-y rate to 2.7%.
Finally, we expect the unemployment rate to tick down 0.1pp to 4.0% after remaining at 4.1% for the past five months.”
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