Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Tag Top Ten MoPay SML Stocks to Net 13.93% to 88.5% Gains To August, 2019
Two of the ten top-yield MoPay stocks (shaded in the chart above) were also among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. Thus the yield strategy for this MoPay group, as graded by analyst estimates for August, proved 20% accurate.
The following probable profit-generating trades were determined by estimated dividend returns from $1000 invested in each highest yield stock. Their dividends plus the aggregate one year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2018-19 data. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to August 22, 2019 were:
Solar Senior Capital (SUNS) netted $885.07, based on median target price estimates from fifteen analysts plus dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 30% less than the market as a whole.
Crius Energy (OTC:CRIUF) [KWH.UN.TO] netted $519.31 [CAD] based on a median target estimate from five analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 95% less than the market as a whole.
Cardinal Energy Ltd [CJ.TO] netted $361.13 [CAD], based on dividend, plus a median target price estimate from ten analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 196% more than the market as a whole.
Invesque (OTC:MHIVF) [IVQ.U.TO] netted $293.54 [CAD] based on target price estimates from two analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for IVQ.U.TO.
Chemtrade Logistics (OTC:CGIFF) [CHE-UN.TO] netted $241.71, based on dividend plus a median target price estimate from nineteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 8% more than the market as a whole.
AltaGas Ltd (AGTFF) [ALA.TO] was forecast to net $212.29 [CAD] based on dividends plus a median target price estimate from thirteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 5% less than the market as a whole.
TransAlta Renewables (OTC:TRSWF)[RNW.TO] netted $170.82 [CAD] based on a median target estimate from eleven analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 10% less than the market as a whole.
American Hotel Income (OTC:AHOTF) [HOT.UN.TO] netted $165.53 [CAD] based on dividends plus the median of annual price estimates from nine analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 521% less than the market as a whole.
Morguard Real Estate Investment Trust (OTC:MGRUF)[MRT.UN.TO] was predicted to net $157.97 [CAD] based on median target price estimates from four analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 13% less than the market as a whole.
Slate Retail REIT (SRRTF) [SRT.UN.TO] netted $139.38 [CAD] based on median target price estimates from five analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 43% less than the market as a whole.
Average net gain in dividend and price was 31.93% on $1k invested in each of these ten MoPay dividend stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 14% less than the market as a whole.
Actionable Conclusion (11): (Bear Alerts) Analysts Anticipated Two SML MoPay Stocks To Lose 4.58% & 6.55% By August, 2019
The two probable losing trades revealed by YCharts to 2019 were:
Gladstone Capital Corp (GLAD) which projected a $45.80 loss based on dividend and a median target price estimates from four analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 12% more than the market as a whole.
Prospect Capital (PSEC) which projected a $65.45 loss based on dividend and a median target price estimate from four analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 21% less than the market as a whole.
Average net loss including dividend with price was 5.56% on $1k invested in each of these two MoPay dividend stocks. This loss estimate was subject to average volatility 4% less than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the “dog” moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More specifically, these are, in fact, best called “underdogs”.
August’s MoPay SML Dividend Dog Data
Three monthly dividend buy and hold lists produced numerous actionable conclusions and several more un-numbered issues. To draw these conclusions and issues, August 22 closing prices and estimated annual dividends were referenced. Monthly pay (MoPay) equity (1) yield and (2) upside potential lists were compared and contrasted against (3) a high yield (and higher risk) MoPay CEICs/ETFs/ETNs list.
Monthly Pay Dividend Qualities
Quarterly, Semi-Annual and Annual dividend investors anxiously await announcements from a firm, fund, or brokerage to learn if their next dividend will be higher, lower, or paid at all. Monthly pay stocks, funds, trusts, and partnerships inform the holder every four and one third weeks by check and/or statement. If the entity reduces or suspends a payment, the holder can sell out of the investment immediately to cut future losses.
List One 156 US & Canadian Monthly Pay Dividend Equities by Yield
Top ten of these US & Canadian exchange listed monthly pay small-mid-large cap dividend equities showing the best yields into August represented just three of the eleven Morningstar market sectors, with representative firms split 1 to 7 to 2 between the utilities, real estate, and financial services sectors.
Top yield MoPay stock for August was one Canadian utility, Crius Energy Trust [KWH.UN.TO] (OTC:CRIUF) [1].
Seven real estate representatives placed second, third, fifth, and seventh, through tenth, Orchid Island Capital (ORC) [2]; AGNC Investment (AGNC) [3]; Global Net Lease (GNL) [5]; ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) [7]; American Hotel Income [HOT.UN.TO][8]; Slate Office REIT [SOT.UN.TO] (SLTTF) [9]; American Hotel Income (OTC:AHOTF) [10].
To complete the August SML MoPay top ten by yield, in fourth and sixth places, came the two financial services stocks, Prospect Capital (PSEC) [4], and the other financial service placed sixth, Stellus Capital Investment (SCM) [6].
List Two: Monthly Pay Dividend Stocks by Price Upside
Results from YCharts for MoPay dividend stocks as of market closing price August 22 were compared with analyst median target Charts. Ten top stocks displayed 9.15% to 82.09% price upsides for the coming year based on analyst 1 yr. targets.
Three stocks of ten (tinted) on this price upside list were also members of the top ten list by yield. Those three made this upside list in the second, fifth and tenth places. The first place price upside honor went to Solar Senior Capital Ltd (SUNS)[1]. Second place went to Crius Energy [KWH.UN.TO] [2]. Third place was taken by Cardinal Energy Ltd [CJ.TO] [3] and in fourth was Invesque Inc [IVQ.U.TO] [4]. In fifth place was Global Net Lease Inc (GNL) [5].
The final top upside five firms were: Chemtrade Logistics (OTC:CGIFF) [CHE.UN.TO] [6]; AltaGas Ltd (OTCPK:ATGFF)[ALA.TO] [7]; TransAlta Renewables Inc (OTC:TRSWF) [RNW.TO] [8]; Morguard Real Estate Investment Trust (OTC:MRGUF) [MRT.UN.TO] [9]; American Hotel Income (OTC:AHOTF) [HOT.UN.TO] [10].
Price upside, of course, was distinguished by the gap between the current price and analyst target one-year median positive price targets for each stock.
Those ten MoPay stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2019 were gleaned from the 156 selected by yield. Three to nine analysts have historically provided the most accurate mean target price estimates.
List Three: Monthly Pay Dividend SML Closed End Investment Companies, Exchange Traded Funds, and Notes, by Yield
Sixty-six top monthly dividend paying (MoPay) small, mid, & large cap Closed End Funds, Exchange Traded Funds, and Notes listed above were culled from nearly 1200 candidates. Annual yields greater than 10.22% calculated as of August 22 determined the top ten.
Top ten SML monthly paying dividend closed end investment companies, funds, & notes showing the biggest yields for August by YCharts & YahooFinance data featured two exchange traded notes [ETNs], and eight closed-end investment companies [CEICs].
Exchange traded notes captured the first and second positions: UBS ETRACS Mthly Py 2xLvg Mortg REIT ETN (MORL) [1] UBS ETRACS Mthly Py 2xLvg Closed-End ETN (CEFL) [2].
Eight CEICs placed third through tenth: Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC) [3]; Eagle Point Credit (ECC) [4]; AllianzGI Convertible & Inc II (NCZ) [5]; AllianzGI Convertible & Income (NCV) [6]; PIMCO High Income (PHK) [7]; NexPoint Strategic Opportunities Fund (NHF) [8]; Brookfield Real Assets Income Fund (RA) [9]; RiverNorth/DoubleLine Strategic Opp Fund (OPP)[10].
This completed the top ten Closed End Investment Companies, Exchange Traded Funds and Notes list for August, 2018.
Compare Monthly Pay Dividend Equities with Top Ten Funds
Yield Metrics Revealed An Advantage For Five Lowest Priced High Yield MoPay Equities
Ten monthly pay stock equities were ranked by yield. The following results, verified by YCharts and Yahoo Finance, produced the following charts.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated 5 Lowest Priced of Top Ten Highest Yield MoPay Dividend StocksCould Produce (12) 14.8% VS. (13) 11.85% Net Gains from All Tenby August, 2019
$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five Lowest priced stocks of the top ten MoPay group by yield were predicted by analyst 1 year targets to deliver 24.89% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The very lowest priced MoPay dividend stock, Crius Energy [KWH.UN.TO], was predicted to deliver the best net gain of 51.93%.
Lowest priced five MoPay SML dividend stocks, estimated August 22, were: Crius Energy [KWH.UN.TO]; American Hotel Income (OTC:AHOTF); Prospect Capital (PSEC); Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC); Slate Office REIT [SOT.UN.TO], with prices ranging from $6.65 to $8.00.
Higher priced five MoPay dividend dogs, estimated August 22, were: American Hotel Income [HOT.UN.TO]; Stellus Capital Investment (SCM); AGNC Investment (AGNC); Global Net Lease (GNL); ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR), whose prices ranged from $9.07 to $23.78.
This distinction between five low priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflects the “basic method” Michael B. O’Higgins employed for beating the Dow. The same technique, you now see, can also be used to find some rewarding stocks for the MoPay Stock kennel.
The added scale of projected gains based on analyst targets contributed a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here and now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Its also the work analysts got paid big bucks to do.
Caution is advised, however, as analysts are historically 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and about 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of the change.
See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. –Fredrik Arnold
Gains/declines as reported do not factor-in any tax problems resulting from dividend, profit, or return of capital distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your MoPay dividend stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.ycharts.com; www.dividend.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Dog Photo: lexpetz.com
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Make investing gains again. Catch your underdog on Facebook!
At 8:45 AM nearly every NYSE trading day on Facebook/Dividend Dog Catcher, Fredrik Arnold gives a quick live video summary of one of five stocks vying for a slot in his Safari To Sweet Success portfolio.
Bring up Facebook/Dividend Dog Catcher at 8:45 AM on any trading day and watch, comment and share. Of course you’re welcome to review the replays, too, anytime.
But always remember: Root for the Underdog
Disclosure: I am/we are long MFCSF.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
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