17 Comments

  1. Great video Nicolas, I always look forward to the Sunday Technical Analysis. I heard you say 'probe trade' a couple of times. Could anyone please explain what that is? Thanks

  2. Great video Nicolas, I always look forward to the Sunday Technical Analysis. I heard you say 'probe trade' a couple of times. Could anyone please explain what that is? Thanks

  3. I think there is clearly a need for review of WHY on “rules of thumb” like – “always candle bodies”, “always opening price vs closing price” and high amount of tolerance on type 2 closes (I think colouring of candles makes them more tolerable on your screen).

    Now, I did map the “wigs only” EURUSD fibonnaci because it was so perfectly 0 tolerance… Why not even consider the closing price and wigs ways of mapping it out? Look, obviously, in the end it’s all bias of humans that drive this. If you favour something for no objective reason, it doesn’t mean the majority of market attenders won’t go with closing prices or wigs only mapping. Actually “closing only” prices makes more logical sense to me unless you have a better explanation, since it’s what line charts show, and that’s what a big sample of market attenders will use. Also, “wigs only” is obviously a no brainer for majority of people at quick glance. You should look at the bias of instances who move the market, and all the unquestionable rules without clear logic are just static and short term.

    Also, there is a clear daily long setup on USDJPY right now, and you didn’t notice it due to above reasons.

    Don’t want to discourage by the way, just keep seeing same small mistakes that lead to confusion a couple of times in last few months.

  4. The best way to train yourself is to do your own analysis and than come to this video to confirm to confirm your ideas. I feel so happy that I hit the nail on most of the currencies 🙂

  5. Thanks for the info. I was waiting for your analysis.
    Now on the topic. USD/CAD. I would suggest that it will continue going up for a bunch of reasons. I am copying from "ZeroHedge":
    -"key sectors including the oil & gas industry and Canadian real estate look ripe for a downturn."
    -"While Canadian real estate has enjoyed a great year, the future outlook is much tougher"
    -Today, almost every factor that drives the Canadian dollar is working against it. Future
    GDP growth rates are set to keep decelerating. Looking at the Bank of
    Canada, its outlook for future rate hikes is now “cautious”
    – Finally, an impending downturn for both crude oil and Canadian real estate further worsen the picture

    And the Zerohedge conclusion: Thus, our longer term outlook on the Canadian dollar is bearish.

    So I would say just go with the trend and buy USD/CAD

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